What is predictive policing?
Predictive policing can be used to forecast criminal activity. Predictive policing uses computer systems to analyze large sets of data, including historical crime data, to help decide where to deploy police or to identify individuals who are purportedly more likely to commit or be a victim of a crime (Lau, 2020).
In the Netherlands they are using CAS ( Crime Anticipation System) this shows a map of the Netherlands, divided into squares measuring 125 by 125 meters. A red box indicates the area in which there is an increased risk of "high impact crimes" such as burglaries, robberies and street robberies.
What type of predictive policing systems are there?
Netherlands CAS (Crime Anticipation System)
America ( Predpol )
CAS
CAS was developed in Amsterdam in 2014 and the idea behind the system is actually very simple “The software creates a grid over a city with squares measuring 125 by 125 meters and then determines the probability of crime and various types of nuisance for each square. Where there is a greater chance of a home burglary, for example, the box will be darker. If there is no chance, the box will not color. ” Different colors indicate different crimes. The maps read much like high and low pressure areas on a weather map. But then for pickpockets and burglars.
Predpol
Predpol uses crime data like; what type of crime, location of the crime, and timeframe.
Predictive policing is more than traditional hotspot mapping. Predictive Policing’s forecasting technology includes high-level mathematics, machine learning, and proven theories of crime behavior, that take a forward-looking approach to crime prevention.
Type of categories of predictions
Generally, there are four categories of predictions that the system can make:
Prediction of crimes.
Prediction of offenders.
Prediction of the criminal’s identity.
Prediction of victims.
CATCH
The police uses predictive policing methods to detect criminals and suspects more quickly. For example, since 2016, the facial recognition program "CATCH" has been used. The software is also called facial comparison, because CATCH does not judge who someone "is", but only "who someone looks like".
CATCH is currently used to verify the identity of a suspected or convicted person on the basis of a dataset. The facial recognition system is therefore not yet used in real time to locate suspects in public spaces. There are already trials in which it is tested. In principle, it is already technically possible to apply real-time facial recognition in the public space and it is therefore also possible that this will also be applied in the near future.
Because there is a chance that the police will want to apply the real-time technology, there is a chance of "function creep".
Function creep
When technology is used at a certain moment for purposes other than originally intended, this is called "function creep".
The development of function creep in information and technology is more a habit than an exception. At some point, the technology is used for purposes other than originally intended. The problem with function creep is that it often ensures that exactly what is currently excluded by law happens in the future.
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